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	<title>Comments on: Statistics, Damn Statistics, and Lies</title>
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	<link>http://perspicacity.wordpress.com/2006/10/15/statistics-damn-statistics-and-lies/</link>
	<description>Freeing myself from 30 years of conditioning</description>
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		<title>By: limejelly</title>
		<link>http://perspicacity.wordpress.com/2006/10/15/statistics-damn-statistics-and-lies/#comment-8</link>
		<dc:creator>limejelly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Nov 2006 10:28:29 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&quot;And yet the event happened, because I just dealt out the cards in that very same sequence!&quot;

For readers not convinced of the cards thing, consider that whatever you dealt, even if you&#039;d asked for it beforehand, the prior probability of that sequence occurring is the same as the simplest ordering quoted. 

Evolution has its likelihood significantly augmented by the feedback involved.  Once you have replication with mutation in a challenging environment, if the replicating generations survive, then the population as a whole will represent  an organism more suited to the environment.  When they die out, you don&#039;t see them.  So, evolution can fail.  Cod is being overfished, and I think it&#039;s unlikely they&#039;ll evolve to stop that happening.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;And yet the event happened, because I just dealt out the cards in that very same sequence!&#8221;</p>
<p>For readers not convinced of the cards thing, consider that whatever you dealt, even if you&#8217;d asked for it beforehand, the prior probability of that sequence occurring is the same as the simplest ordering quoted. </p>
<p>Evolution has its likelihood significantly augmented by the feedback involved.  Once you have replication with mutation in a challenging environment, if the replicating generations survive, then the population as a whole will represent  an organism more suited to the environment.  When they die out, you don&#8217;t see them.  So, evolution can fail.  Cod is being overfished, and I think it&#8217;s unlikely they&#8217;ll evolve to stop that happening.</p>
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